The Power of Unpredictability

by Christina Holmes

The Covid-19 pandemic highlights perfectly how unpredictability impacts people and their behaviour. Remember the toilet roll bulking, and the stocking up of canned goods, and the internet furor in uploading all those DIY posts?

The indiscriminate nature of the virus made people lock themselves away, isolate, and wear medical masks and gloves. The vaccine roll out created chaos with questions of safety and conspiracy theories abounding on social media!

The world didn’t know what they were dealing with, and untested ‘experts’ guided us with untried advice on how to protect ourselves. With every mutation of the virus, the panic and uncertainty rose. No one knew if they’d contract it, or if the pandemic would end, or when life would return to normal.

The unpredictability of it all claimed absolute power over everything, from personal hygiene to stock markets. No one was safe. Fear reigned.

Unpredictability leads to fear, fear leads to stress and anxiety, which then causes the affected person to doubt themselves. Unpredictable behaviour attracts attention by people trying to understand or anticipate the unpredictable person's actions, which can give that person a certain degree of influence or power over the attention and perceptions of others. Behaviour manipulations then occur, where others may feel compelled to defer to them or comply with their wishes out of fear of negative consequences or simply to avoid conflict. This can enhance the perception of power, which enhances the unpredictability, which creates a cycle.

Unpredictable events also significantly influence power dynamics, stress levels, and an overall sense of uncertainty. They reshape the landscape of power by altering who holds control, adding distress and emotion to an already highly-charged situation. This shift of control causes trepidation and anxiety, where parts of society become unstable. Future outcomes are unknown and planning is impossible. It is here that fear shapes the power of unpredictability.

Various leaders, personalities and groups in the world use the principle of unpredictability in order to project their image of power. In 1957, the acclaimed political theorist Robert Dahl defined power as “influence over the actions of others”, so let's look how unpredictability enhances the projection or actual power of present-day global figures and events.

The most obviously and dangerously unpredictable political figure that comes to mind is Vladimir Putin. As the longest-serving Russian or Soviet leader since Stalin, it is logical to state that Putin is a dictator, who has changed Russia’s laws in order to remain in power until 2036. Coming from a rough beginning, this chameleon of a man has taken on many guises in his quest for power — from student to KGB agent to politician to president. His training as a spy ordered that he “go with the flow, fit in, and vary patterns”.

This trait of ‘going with the flow’ adds to the shock when Putin suddenly does or says something unexpected, which leaves people perplexed and unsure of who he is. This is where people start to doubt themselves and their own capacity to sum up a person or a situation. Behaviour manipulation occurs and leads to a creation of dependency, where the manipulator (Putin in this case) offers him/herself to be the solution.

His KGB training might then explain how the celebrated TIME Person of the Year in 2007 launched a full scale invasion of Ukraine in February 2023 without legitimate reason or warning. How the man who was awarded the highest international awards of 19 countries is now accused of war crimes and human rights atrocities. How the man who was tasked with promoting international relations and foreign investments in 1991 now punishes journalists who oppose him and eliminates political opposition. He issued his latest threat in March this year when he threatened the West with nuclear war, after warning of ‘retaliation’ on Sweden and Finland for joining NATO.

No one knows what he will do. Will he press the red button? Will he withdraw from Ukraine? Who will be next on his hit list? His behaviour often appears contradictory and erratic, and his unpredictability makes his possible actions all the more powerful. The West is thrown off guard by his games. Treaties are hastily drawn up, and Putin holds a psychological advantage over other countries in his unpredictability. Additionally, other countries and global institutions can not make plans or implement policies because they are on the backfoot, forever preparing to defend themselves should Putin act. Putin is a master manipulator who knows how to utilise unpredictability to create situations of uncertainty, dependency and control, where he can step in and consolidate his power base. A textbook case of seizing the opportunity of authority.

Another mystery figure is Donald Trump. ‘Mystery?’ you question. He says exactly what’s on his mind! While that might be correct, what he says and does is often contrary to another one of his utterances or infamous tweets. Take, for example, when he announced that NATO was ‘obsolete’ while he was campaigning, and then stating: “I said it was obsolete. It's no longer obsolete. ” within his first weeks as president! Trump has flip-flopped on almost every issue, from the environment, to abortion, to gay marriage, to his own intellect!

He seems to be triggered by anyone getting one up on him and responds by simply calling them ‘a nasty woman’ or by alleging that they are peddling ‘fake news’. He has even used the childish boast of ‘bigger is best’ when he taunted North Korea’s Kim Jong Un by writing on X (formerly Twitter) that his nuclear button was ‘much bigger and more powerful’.

The world is perpetually questioning whether Trump will or won’t; whether he’s capable or unstable; whether he’s serious or not. Again, no-one knows, and that gives him the advantage over any opponent. Those who oppose him are often caught off guard by his political behaviour, and it is impossible to constrain or restrain him. His recent statement encouraging Russia to do “whatever the hell they want” to any NATO member country that doesn't meet spending guidelines on defence is unimaginable and unpredictable for a former head of the United States of America who values patriotism.

Other leaders of countries and the member states of NATO are held in endless unbalance of whether or not Trump will join or abandon them. Leaders are left pandering to him to unite with them, which in turn gives him great power as the ‘saviour’ of the united West. His ‘fake news’ statements are designed to confuse and mislead society, where many end up turning to him as the power behind information - because he seems to know more confidently than most. He disrupts opponents constantly, which throws them off-balance and they are unable to effectively state their politics while busy responding to his unpredictable attacks.

With Trump embracing the strategy of chaos as a political tool, he is able to divide, confuse, demoralise, rescue and liberate, depending on the political arena. His use of unpredictability serves to control the narrative, to befuddle his opponents and to maintain a dominant presence in the media. By being unpredictable, he holds the initiative, forcing others to react rather than setting their own agenda. This strategy is the hallmark of Trump’s political style, and has greatly impacted local and foreign politics in its unpredictability.

Donald Trump and Vladimir Putin microsculpeted on pencil graphite. Salavat Fidai, CC BY-SA 2.0 <https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-sa/2.0> , via Wikimedia Commons

Yet another group shocked the world in a tragic way when it launched a sudden attack on citizens in Israel. The attack on October 7 killed 1143 people, wounded 3400 others and saw another 250 people being kidnapped and taken back into Gaza.

There had been no attack of its kind on Israeli territory since 1948, and the unpredictability of the brutal attacks by the Hamas-led military groups astounded the world with the savagery used against Jewish civilians in their attack. Festival goers were targeted and mowed down by gunmen as they tried to escape. Families on various kibbutzim were attacked, violated and massacred or kidnapped, disregarding age, gender or nationality. No one was spared or safe, and the fear that the attacks caused gave the terrorists control and power.

They rejoiced and uploaded proof of their power on social media, parading shocking footage of bodies and limbs and executions and sexual atrocities in their triumph. The world experienced the horror of their unprecedented, psychological propaganda as a collective and Hamas revelled in their power by highlighting the shift of power from their unpredicted attack and atrocities. They were in control. They administered the narrative. They held Israel captive through the hostages.

Perhaps just as shocking is the retaliation by Israeli Prime Minister, Benjamin Netanyahu, who ordered an invasion of Gaza, named ‘Operation Swords of Iron’ . He announced to his country in a video message, “Citizens of Israel, we are at war -- not in an operation, not in rounds -- at war.”

No diplomacy, no negotiations for hostages. Unexpected war! Which has evolved into the full scale destruction of Hamas in the Gaza Strip, and of Palestine, with over 35 000 Palestinian lives being lost (at the time of writing) — the majority being civilians.

Netanyahu had said “Never again” after Israel's first war of independence against Gaza and so this unpredictable move of war by the Israeli leader caught the World and possibly Hamas by surprise. Here is a man who was once called ‘the King of Israel’ , going back on his promise of ‘never again’ , and launching a merciless invasion into Palestine! Forsaking the lives of those Isrealies kidnapped, and with outright disregard for the people of Palestine.

He has stalled at negotiations for peace, or a ceasefire, or to allow humanitarian support to Palestinians. He has ignored the pleas of the Israeli captives’ families in his promises to raze Gaza to the ground. His unpredictably savage actions have given him absolute power over this war in every way, and has even led to US president, Joe Biden, recently saying that Netanyahu “is making a mistake”. With Biden himself being no stranger to making unpredictable faux pas, his statement against Netanyahu is intrinsically controversial. “Hell is other people”, as Sartre said.

So the next time you notice someone doing something unexpected, or something unexpected happening, make sure to note your own feelings of uncertainty or vulnerability. The power of unpredictability is a potent tool for people and politicians to achieve their aims. It can be used strategically to create chaos, panic and insecurity in order to conceal other plans, to reinforce personal aims, or to grab the opportunity of authority. Unpredictability elevates standing, visibility and power which causes behavioural modifications of those around them.

Unpredictable behaviour also serves to advance the psychological game of the one projecting it, and when politicians use this ploy, they are less likely to be challenged or controlled by others because everyone is unsure, and nobody knows what to expect next. People are thrown off guard and the power of the politician is increased. The people are manipulated and the cycle continues.

There can be no doubt that unpredictability determines power dynamics, so don’t get too comfortable with the present. Whenever a politician or group does or says something confounding, or an unexpected event occurs, remember that Benjamin Franklin once famously wrote, “In this world, nothing is certain except death or taxes” .