Turkish Regional Elections Signal Political Shift: Erdoğan's Party Faces Major Defeat

by Stefano Sorrentino

On March 31, 2024, Türkiye held its regional elections, marking a significant shift in the country's political landscape. Following President Erdoğan's victory in the national elections two years prior, the main opposition party, the Republican People's Party (CHP), led by Özgür Özel, secured victories in 36 out of 81 provinces. Erdogan’s Justice and Development party (AK Party) instead shifted from 48 provinces’ support in 2019, to only 24 in the latest elections. This marks the first time in more than 20 years that Erdoğan's AK Party has faced a major defeat, losing seats to the opposition party. This signals a notable change in Türkiye's political direction, from an increasingly authoritarian regime led by the AK Party to a social democratic CHP.

The CHP is historically relevant among Turkish citizens in that it was founded by Mustafa Kemal Atatürk, the country’s first president, who is still praised for his reforms that transformed Türkiye into a secular and prosperous modern country, where Islam was separated from civic and public space. Ekrem İmamoğlu, mayor of the city of Istanbul and part of the CHP, is a supporter of Atatürk’s principles. He secured his mandate once again after winning the regional elections in 2019, positioning himself as a potential presidential candidate for the upcoming national elections of the country. In fact, compared to the last elections in 2019, when the CHP obtained victory only in major cities like Istanbul and Izmir, at present, many other inland cities in western Türkiye have shifted their allegiance to the Republican People’s party.

Meanwhile, in eastern Türkiye, the Supreme Election Board overturned the decision of the regional election commission, which had removed Zeydan, a candidate of the pro- Kurdish Peoples’ Equality and Democracy Party (DEM). Zeydan's victory, with over 55 percent of the vote, was initially invalidated due to a past conviction, leading to protests and arrests in the city of Van. Following Zeydan’s appeal, he successfully reclaimed his victory, prompting celebrations among the Kurdish population. The decision by the authority is seen as a setback for President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan and his party, following their recent losses in local elections. It’s not the first time, in fact, that Erdoğan has tried to remove a pro-Kurdish mayor, likely due to his opposition to the PKK (Kurdistan Workers’ Party), which is considered as a terrorist organization by Türkiye, the EU and the USA among others.

CHP celebration after local election victory in Ankara, Türkiye’s capital. Yıldız Yazıcıoğlu, Public domain, via Wikimedia Commons

The decreasing support for the AK Party, which has consistently maintained a stronghold for two decades in the majority of Türkiye, has been attributed to various factors, including rising inflation (which reached 65% in 2023), dissatisfaction among some religious voters, and İmamoğlu's appeal beyond the traditional secular base of the CHP. Erdoğan himself, in a post-election statement, declared regional results as a “turning point” and promised to correct the mistakes committed by his party.

Finally, İmamoğlu’s reelection in Istanbul sparked joyful celebrations among opposition supporters, drawing tens of thousands to the streets, and demonstrating a desire for change in people.