Democratic Crisis in Bangladesh: What is the Next Scene?
- Shahadat Hossain
- Jul 5, 2024
- 6 min read
by Shahadat Hossain
The national elections in Bangladesh in 2014 and 2018 were marked by boycotts from opposition parties, leading to massive violence and low voter turnout. The crisis of democracy in Bangladesh has been ongoing since 2014, but the landscape appeared somewhat different in the lead-up to the 2024 elections compared to previous years. The 2024 elections garnered deep attention from the democratic world, especially after the US announced a new visa policy tied to Bangladesh's democratic procedures. This fueled hopes for free, fair, and participatory elections in Bangladesh.
On the other hand, since mid-2022, Bangladesh has been facing economic challenges, including high inflation and rising commodity prices, which have angered the public. The opposition, led by the Bangladesh Nationalist Party (BNP), capitalized on this sentiment. At that time, the BNP's rallies and protests demanding the government's resignation gained significant public support.
However, on October 28, 2023, the situation shifted dramatically. A mass protest by the BNP in the capital, Dhaka, ended in violence and police vehicles being set on fire. Following the violence and the death of multiple police officers in the protest, most of the BNP’s prominent figures, including its general secretary, Mirza Fakrul Islam Alamgir, were arrested. International media labelled it a crackdown. The ruling party, the Bangladesh Awami League (BAL), took advantage of the situation and called for another one-party election.
Despite calls from the UN, US, EU, and Australia for free, fair, and participatory elections, the US visa policy, and US Assistant Secretary of State for South and Central Asian Affairs Donald Lu's letter to the three major parties for ‘dialogue without preconditions’ for ‘free, fair, impartial, and participatory elections’ , the 2024 national election unfolded with opposition boycotts, widespread violence, and disappointingly low voter turnout, reminiscent of the elections in 2014 and 2018.
During the controversial elections and the strained democratic process again in Bangladesh, the international community was not in agreement on welcoming the government. The day following the election, the ambassadors of India and China hastily congratulated Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina on her new victory. However, the US and the UN remained concerned about democratic legitimacy during the election.
Sheikh Hasina’s foreign policy and Upcoming challenges
Sheikh Hasina’s regime follows Bangabandhu to Sheikh Mujibur Rahman’s foreign policy of 'Friendship With All, Malice Towards None' . In numerous speeches, Sheikh Hasina has emphasized the focus of her foreign policy on 'Economic Diplomacy. ' The new government now has a vision for 2041, which requires attracting substantial foreign investment into the country.
The current regime's most significant upcoming challenge is to tackle geopolitical tensions with the US and the democratic world regarding the democratic legitimacy in Bangladesh. The government must not only mediate the souring relations with the US and the West but also strike a critical balance with China and India.
Small South Asian nations like Sri Lanka, Nepal, and the Maldives are caught in an economic and social stand-off between India and China. For example, in these countries, the media labels the major parties as either ‘pro-Indian’ or ‘pro-Chinese’ . However, in Bangladesh, both India and China are enthusiastic about the same political party which has been facing criticism for shifting Bangladesh's political system towards authoritarianism. It is a unique challenge for the current government of Bangladesh to carefully manage China's expanding influence while maintaining a strategic relationship with India. In the recent past, India and China have experienced border tensions in Doklam and Ladakh, and China claimed sovereignty over the Indian province of Arunachal Pradesh. On the other hand, it appears that China's strategic positioning of ports and their military presence in South Asia aims to contain India. Therefore, for Bangladesh, it is a daunting task to strike a delicate balance between the two regional giants.
In Bangladesh, China’s strategy includes applying infrastructure diplomacy. In 2016, China announced 27 development projects worth 24.45 billion USD in investments in Bangladesh. A further 13.06 billion USD committed by Chinese companies forming joint ventures with Bangladeshi entities brought the total sum to 38.05 billion USD. However, China-Bangladesh military relations are also substantial, which might be a concern from India's side. Bangladesh is the second-largest arms market for China in South Asia after Pakistan. In 2016, China provided Bangladesh with the state's first pair of submarines, named Chinese Ming-class Type 035B diesel-electric submarines. A China-funded submarine base is now under construction in Cox’s Bazar, Bangladesh, which is a significant development in Bay of Bengal maritime geopolitics. As South Asian regional power is heightened, India may indeed have concerns over Chinese military projects in Bangladesh, especially given the strategic implications.
One project that has been in the spotlight in Bangladesh is the ‘Teesta River Management’ project, which is being discussed with China. There is media hype in Dhaka suggesting that India has certain concerns over this project. The Teesta River enters Bangladesh from India, and an agreement regarding the Teesta River water sharing between Bangladesh and India has been under discussion since 2011. If China were to implement the Teesta River management project in Bangladesh, it could set an example that Bangladesh has an option other than relying on India. However, not only China's military presence but also its infrastructure diplomacy could lead India feeling sidelined in Bangladesh.
For India, monitoring Bangladesh is crucial for the connectivity and stability of its northeastern provinces. The Indian mainland is linked to these provinces through the narrow Siliguri Corridor. Just as Chinese presence in Doklam, near Siliguri, raises concerns for New Delhi, Beijing’s military presence in Bangladesh also holds the same significance for India.
However, India is not only an unrestricted supporter of the current regime in Bangladesh but also acts as its mediator regime on the international platform. Thus, a delicate balancing act between China and India presents a significant challenge for Bangladesh's foreign policy.
Economic Challenges of New Government
Beyond the geopolitical challenges, Bangladesh is in the throes of unprecedented economic challenges, including inflation, a reserve crisis, a high rate of the dollar, and lower remittances.
The US and EU are the biggest export markets for Bangladesh, particularly for Bangladeshi garments. The US Secretary of State mentioned the labor leader, Kalpana Akter, from Bangladesh in relation to the US’ recent labor policy. Therefore, the US has concerns not only about the democratic process but also about labor rights in Bangladesh.
In the Pre-election period, European Union’s Ambassador to Bangladesh, Charles Whitley, stated that free and fair elections in Bangladesh can open a door for Generalized Scheme of Preferences (GSP) plus benefits of zero tariff on a large number of export items to European markets. If any restrictions or sanctions apply from the US or EU to Bangladesh garments according to their labor policy, the garment sector will face a massacre in Bangladesh.
Already, the dollar crisis in Bangladesh is in a soft concern period, and Bangladesh received an announcement of a 4.5 billion loan from the IMF to tackle the crisis. If the export markets in the United States and the United Kingdom shrink, it will be difficult to deal with the dollar crisis because Bangladesh mainly meets its import expenditure with export dollars. As a result, there is a possibility of facing a stumbling block in acquiring the country's essential imports. To navigate the economic crisis, including the dollar crisis, Bangladesh’s challenge is to tackle the potential fallout of the export market of the US and EU.
Pros and Cons of Hasina’s domestic policy
Sheikh Hasina is one of the few Muslim women leaders in the world. Her decision to open the border for Rohingya people has been praised worldwide. Despite facing communal attacks under the Hasina regime, such as the attack on a Buddhist temple in 2012 and several communal attacks during Durga Puja in 2021, Sheikh Hasina is seen as a reliable friend to minorities. Her party has a traditionally secular ideology. In contrast, the opposition Bangladesh Nationalist Party (BNP) has drawn suspicion from minorities due to its alliance with Islamist parties.
Ultimately, Sheikh Hasina’s secular face has been challenged in her transition to 'hybrid regime' . New political dynamics not only reshape the geopolitical and economic landscape, but also have profound implications for domestic politics. Past experiences with hybrid regimes in Bangladesh have undermined freedom of press, freedom of expression, and civil society participation, leading to increased marginalization of the media, civil society, and opposition voices. A law passed by the ‘hybrid regime’ , named the Digital Security Law, is seen as a tool to undermine free press and social media activities. The Bangladesh government filed 1109 cases between 2018 and 2022, leading to the arrest of 161 opposition politicians and 138 journalists under this law ((Riaz, Ali 2023. P-13). Writer Mushtaq Ahmed and political cartoonist Kabir Kishore were arrested under this law; they were allegedly abused in jail and died in custody. There is concern that a similar scenario will occur in the new regime.
To enhance relations with the US and the Western democratic bloc and to ensure Bangladesh's economic stability, Dhaka has few options but to improve labor rights, media freedom, and civil society participation in the country. Positioned strategically in the Indo-Pacific, Bangladesh finds itself at a critical crossroads, under close scrutiny by the international community. Therefore, the nation must navigate a path that upholds democratic principles and adopts a balanced approach to global alliances for economic stability. The stakes are high, and the decisions made in the coming months will define Bangladesh's trajectory for years to come.
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