Socialist Spain: from internal turmoil to international irrelevance

OPINION PIECE

For over half a century NATO has constituted the most formidable military alliance in history. Membership was coveted; it meant benefiting from the US military umbrella and sharing the values of the free world. Unfortunately today, as the Atlantic Partnership strains, Spain's Socialist government risks alienating its country from its main ally, becoming, as a result, more vulnerable to threats in an increasingly volatile and unstable world.  

Spain joined NATO in 1982, which paved the way to its EU accession in 1986. Indeed, after a long dictatorship and a period of international isolation, Spain underwent, in the late 1970s, an exemplary transition from a dictatorship to a democracy that awed the world. The next two decades saw Conservative and Socialist governments, alike, consolidate Spain as a European democracy and integrate it in its Western political and cultural environment.

But like Colombian journalist Ernesto Yamhure writes in the Spanish digital media, Libertad Digital, “this political and historical capital is not automatic nor irreversible. In order to sustain it, strategic coherence and moral clarity are needed.” It was José María Aznar, the fourth Prime Minister (1996-2004) in Spain's recently democratic regime, who best displayed these attributes. Aware that too long had Spain been on the sidelines of history, he was determined to increase Spain's international standing and leverage its full weight regardless of its middle power status. He managed this by making Spain a founding member of the EURO, in spite of the catastrophic economic situation -3.5 million unemployed (20.04% of the active population), a 5.5% deficit, a debt of €360,000 million and a bankrupt Social Security- inherited from his Socialist predecessor, Felipe González; and by cornering the entire apparatus of the Basque terrorist organization, ETA, by illegalizing its political branches and an unyielding police pressure. His assertiveness within the EU greatly benefited Spain economically and politically. In 2000 he was re-elected with an absolute majority. 

Aznar’s success caught the attention of the US President, George W. Bush, who chose Madrid as his first visit abroad after being elected in 2001. Spain-US relations reached an all-time high, earning Spain a seat at the table. Unfortunately, and in spite of the polls hinting at a third conservative victory, the March 11, 2004 train bombings,  which many linked to Aznar’s support to Bush’s invasion of Iraq, happened, killing 191 Spaniards and leaving nearly 2000 severely injured. A nation in shock went to the polls three days after and a Socialist government was elected. Ever since this fateful date, Spain has been sliding towards internal turmoil and international irrelevance.

Gaining international presence is an arduous process whereas losing it is easy. Tragically, the Spanish Socialist Party is proving an expert at blunders that affect Spain’s relations with its closest allies. 

In 2003, former Spanish Prime Minister José Luis Rodríguez Zapatero, refused to stand up and show due respect to the American flag during a military parade in Madrid to show his disagreement with the invasion of Iraq. Once in power, in a hurried and uncoordinated move, he withdrew Spanish military forces from the Middle East country abandoning its allies. Today, Zapatero is under intense scrutiny for his dubious “mediating” activities with Maduro's Venezuela and under suspicion for corruption and embezzlement regarding activities linked also to Venezuela. Current Prime Minister of Spain, Pedro Sánchez, also a Socialist and whose government coalition including pro-ETA Bildu, Communists and Catalan Secessionists is causing a deep social divide amongst Spaniards, is front page news for his confrontation with Trump regarding NATO financial obligations and the use of American Military Bases in Southern Spain to support the bombing campaign in Iran. Some Spanish media outlets such as ABC, El Debate and Libertad Digital, have called this another smoke screen to distract public opinion from the corruption scandals affecting the Socialist Party and Sanchez's closest entourage, including his brother and wife. 

Adopting a similar stance to that after Hamas's terrorist attacks against Israel on October 7th, 2023, Pedro Sánchez was one of the first European leaders to condemn the strategic bombings in Iran. He has done so by unearthing the slogan the Socialists used to oppose Aznar's support for the invasion of Iraq in 2003: “No a la guerra” (No to war). 

In his book Accomplice to Evil, American foreign policy analyst and author Michael A. Ledeen, describes how Iran's Ayatollah regime has, for decades, massacred its own people, financed militias, promoted terrorist cells and actively contributed to global destabilization through a nuclear program that the multilateral structures in place were not able to, or simply did not have the will to, stop. The Hamas terror attack of 2023 was the climax of those efforts (see Marco Rubio's warning from 2015). 

In the article quoted above, Ernesto Yamhure explains how war has been the subject of study since Antiquity: its strategy, its means but also limiting its devastating effects on the most vulnerable, as well as subjecting it to a morality that differentiates legitimate defense from unjust aggressions. In this sense, saying “No a la guerra” might sound morally elevated but as a policy it lacks substance and is philosophically flawed. While it is true that not all wars are just, some threats, if not confronted, can lead to greater conflicts. Inaction against aggressive regimes does not bring peace. Winston Churchill taught us that. 

Sanchez's refusal to let the US use the bases of Moron and Rota is a turning point for US-Spain relations. Trump's immediate reaction to withdraw eleven cistern planes is a sign that trust has been broken. Furthermore, Trump has described Spain as a “terrible ally.” This should not be taken lightly. Spain's southern neighbor desires land that has been Spanish for over 500 years. The cities of Ceuta and Melilla are highly vulnerable, and their stability and security depend largely on the military assistance provided by the Atlantic Alliance. The same is applicable to the Canary Islands.

Should Morocco decide to move against Spain (induced migratory waves, border clashes or troop movements), who will come to Spain's aid when Spain did not aid its ally? Dissuasion works when alliances are strong and credible. When that credibility erodes, the adversary's morale and margins expand. This is something that Morocco understands well just as it understands that it was the strong political and military bond between Spain and the US that could dissuade Morocco from aggressive actions. But now, Pedro Sánchez, for purely internal political reasons, might have weakened that bond at the expense of his country's and its people’s security and interests.  

At a time when the international order created after World War II is unravelling, one must tread extremely carefully to make sure that, when the dust settles, they land on the correct side of the geopolitical board. Should conflict come knocking on its door, Spain could find itself very alone.

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David Bayon holds a Bachelor’s degree in Contemporary History and a Master’s in International Relations. Between 2006 and 2009, he worked for the Spanish Ministry of Foreign Affairs and the Catalan Government. He has authored articles on national and international issues for the newspaper El Universo de Madrid and has written several pieces for The Heptagon Post, which is affiliated with King’s College London. David has lived in Israel, Nigeria, Peru, Sierra Leone, Angola, Turkey, Sri Lanka, and Jordan; he currently resides in Stockholm.

OPINION PIECE

The views and opinions expressed in this article are those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the position of the publication.