From Fields to Famine The Unfolding Climate Crisis in Southern Africa

by Priscilla Nyamhingura

From Fields to Famine The Unfolding Climate Crisis in Southern Africa  Priscilla Nyamhingura  Since mid-2023, southern Africa has been experiencing one of its most severe droughts in decades, as an indirect consequence of climate change. This drought has severely impacted agricultural productivity, specifically the maize harvest which has led to extensive food insecurity across several countries, including Malawi, Zimbabwe and Zambia. The economic ramifications are significant with losses in many affected sectors intensifying poverty and straining national economies. The aforementioned countries have declared the drought a national disaster as the situation has become dire. 

In order to understand the genesis of the prolonged aridity it is important to understand the El Niño phenomenon. El Niño is a natural climate pattern that happens periodically that warms the Pacific Ocean, disrupting wind and pressure patterns . This leads to altered jet streams, causing increased rainfall in some regions and droughts in others . Normally, the El Niño-induced droughts are a part of the climate variability in southern Africa. However, climate change is exacerbating the phenomenon and making it more frequent. It is no secret that climate change leads to increased temperatures, subsequently leading to warmer ocean temperatures, making El Niño stronger, the severe repercussions of which can be seen in southern Africa. 

Rising temperatures and a severe lack of precipitation has intensified and expanded progressively across many parts of the Zambezi basin, including Zimbabwe, Zambia, Malawi and Namibia. The reduced rainfall is intensified by El Niño leading to drought 3 conditions and water shortages . The elevated temperatures have resulted in lengthy and intense heat waves which aggravated the deficit in precipitation. As of late March 2024, negative soil moisture all over the basin was resulting in poor conditions for the agricultural sector and leading to food insecurity, malnutrition, water scarcity, increased poverty and worsened economy in the aforementioned countries .

It is paramount to focus on southern Africa as a region particularly vulnerable to climate change because of its geographic location and socioeconomic development state . The subtropical climate of the region is projected to become warmer and drier and it has been reported that the warming in the inland of southern Africa is occurring at about twice the global average rate. A further reason behind southern Africa’s vulnerability to current and future climate impacts is the developmental status of the economies, infrastructure and institutions in the region . This implies limited technical and financial capacity to adapt to current and future risks.

Villagers in line to get water in Norton, Zimbabwe. SuSanA Secretariat, CC BY 2.0 <https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/2.0> , via Wikimedia Commons

These tumultuous conditions have resulted in severe vegetation stress as crops have been affected during the most critical period of growing season, leaving a trail of 7 excruciating economic and social impacts. The primary sector is the largest in the Zambezi basin economies and agriculture is the cornerstone of most citizens' income. The depletion of water availability in the soil has caused a significant decline in crops and pasture loss, resulting in reduced livestock productivity and a food supply deficit . This results in reduced income for farmers, food price hikes, a decrease in agricultural exports, and sets off a chain reaction on related industries like food processing and transportation. This reduced productivity slows economic growth, leading to losses in rural areas, and causes social unrest due to rising costs of living and increased hunger. 

Zimbabwean authorities have declared that the country is in a nationwide state of disaster, with authorities projecting that more than 50 percent of citizens in the rural parts of the country are set to be food insecure by January 2025. Civilians will need to depend on alternative sources of income, social support and humanitarian assistance in order to withstand the peak hunger period. Additionally, humanitarian assistance needs will remain high in many areas of the country until the harvest in 2025 due to poor purchasing capacity resulting from limited income-earning opportunities and high food prices. 

There are a plethora of social impacts that come with the onset of a drought, ranging from medical to public safety and their impacts can be both immediate and long-term, affecting livelihoods, health, infrastructure and social stability. Persistent droughts cause water sources to dry up, making it difficult for people to access safe drinking water leading to life threatening waterborne disease outbreaks such as cholera or schistosomiasis . Other medical issues that can arise include malaria and chronic dehydration - the former occurs from stagnant water which can result from irrigation in areas of water scarcity, the latter can result in kidney stones, urinary tract infections, and even kidney failure . These issues are compounded by poverty and difficulty of maintaining clean water supplies, especially in rural areas 16 . Furthermore, droughts tend to disproportionately affect marginalised groups such as those who live in rural areas, children, women, and low-income communities among others, who bear the brunt of scarcity.

Consequently, drought related economic losses and resource shortages induce increased levels of stress, anxiety, and many other mental health related issues particularly among farmers and rural communities. The uncertainty and inability to meet basic needs can take a psychological toll that often turns violent. Lastly, children in drought-affected areas may be forced to drop out of school, either to help families cope with the economic hardships or because declining incomes make it difficult to afford school fees.

An example of the social impacts of drought shock is the occurrence of water-point violence. There are three major findings: firstly, it has been discovered that drought shock is associated with increased household propensity to experience water point violence. Second, the severity of the drought shock impact increases the probability of the household experiencing water point violence. Third, drought shock induced water point violence is only statistically valid for households where the water fetcher is a woman or girl. This means that adverse weather or drought shocks disproportionately affect women and girls. Although many countries in southern Africa have drilled and continue to drill boreholes in urban areas to avail communities with water sources, the community sharing of water sources that use physically demanding bush pumps increases the waiting time at these places, increasing the likelihood of potentially explosive social interactions. 

Southern Africa is at the forefront of the climate crisis, facing rising temperatures, severe droughts, and unpredictable weather patterns that threaten food security, water resources, and livelihoods. Immediate action is critical - investment in climate resilient infrastructure, improved early warning systems and widespread public awareness campaigns are essential to mitigate these impacts. With collaboration between governments, businesses, and communities, the region can build resilience and safeguard its future against the worsening effects of climate change. Time is of the essence, and the need for action has never been more urgent.